Martyn 'Bomber' Bradbury: Many political writers and commentators have destroyed their careers on the rocks of writing NZ First off.
Winston is the ultimate political survivor, but I'm going to go there and state the only way Winston returns to Parliament is if Shane Jones wins Northland because I believe the cultural tide has run out for Winston and that NZ First will come under the 5% MMP threshold this election for a couple of specific reasons.
1 - Jacinda:
She is a phenomenon. She has managed to reach out to every Kiwi over the lockdown and has connected with them at a time when they felt vulnerable. NZ First has no response to that new political loyalty to Jacinda. We are a Nation crying out for compassion and all Winston has as a reply is a sly laugh and a quick wink that doesn't capture the emotional needs of the NZ voting population.
2 - No Immigration hot buttons
With the borders closed, Winston can't go to the usual divisive hot button of immigration to bolster his electoral profile.
3 - No longer a Kingmaker or Queen maker
But ultimately the reason NZ First will fall under 5% is because Winston's main leverage of being the King or Queen maker no longer exists. The polls tell us that Jacinda can win on her own, so the only Queen Winston will be anointing is Judith Collins.
I know that many who have written Winston off lived to regret it, but I think it's over for NZ First because Winston hasn't ever faced a pandemic and the unique cultural currents that event has brought into play.
This election will be an exercise in gratitude to Jacinda for navigating us through a global pandemic, there's no place for Winston in that political loyalty.
Shane Jones won't just be delivering for his own political future, he has to save Winston's legacy as well.
Editor - TheDailyBlog.nz
Radio Waatea and it's board would like to advise that the opinions posted are those of Martyn 'Bomber Bradbury' and not the views of Radio Waatea, it's Management or it's Board