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How Maori, young voters and Women will decide the 2017 Election
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How Maori, young voters and Women will decide the 2017 Election
MARTYN 'BOMBER' BRADBURY


If we look at the opinion poll stats 6 months out from the last 3 elections, National over poll by a significant percentage, Labour over poll by a smaller percentage, the Greens are static and NZ First rises when Labour's vote collapses.

With that in mind, the recent Opinion Polls last month suggest National will get about 40%, Labour will be lucky to be in the early 30s, the Greens will probably get 11% and NZ Firsts fortunes will rely on whether or not Labour's vote collapses in the last month of the election.

So where does that leave us in an election that could be razor close?

It leaves us with the voices often ignored in a democracy having a greater influence in the final make up of the Government come October.

I believe Maori, the under 30s and women are set to make a far larger impact on the election result than previous elections for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, the under 30s voting block are some of the most under represented in the NZ electorate. If they turn up angry at how their future has been sold out from under them by property speculators, except some change.

Secondly Maori will be a huge factor in deciding if Labour or the Maori Party will emerge as the chosen political vehicle for Maori aspiration. If It's Labour, they have a chance to form the next Government, if it's the Maori Party odds on National will benefit.

Thirdly, female voters who were wooed by John Key are more interested in Jacinda Ardern on Labour's front bench rather than Bill and Paula. If these female voters change allegiance in September it will be to National's detriment.

It will be those voices that have the least amount of power who could end up deciding the fate of the next Government.


Radio Waatea and it's Board would like to advise that the opinions posted are those of Martyn 'Bomber' Bradbury and not the views of Radio Waatea, it's Management or it's Board.
 

Martyn Bradbury

Editor - TheDailyBlog.co.nz

twitter.com/CitizenBomber

Copyright © 2017, UMA Broadcasting Ltd: www.waateanews.com

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